Positive Economic Forecasts for Poland

Poland is the only EU economy that has managed to avoid recession, and it appears as if the situation may get even better. According to Michał Boni, an economic aide to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the economy could finish the year with over one percent growth. The Polish Press Agency (PAP) has quoted Boni as saying, “In the whole of 2009 [GDP growth] will stand at one percent but it’s possible it will be higher than that.”

Meanwhile, Rzeczpospolita reported that the European Commission has doubled its previous forecast of 0.8 percent for Poland’s GDP growth for 2010 to 1.6 percent. Merrill Lynch economist Radosław Bodys said, “Each new set of data announced by GUS (Central Statistical Office) are better than anticipated. Currently, our forecasts claim that the Polish economy will develop at a pace of 1.5 percent in 2009, although at the beginning of the year we were convinced of a fall of one percent.” According to Bodys, next year’s growth could reach between two and 2.5 percent.

Poland’s industrial output data has also improved. Gazeta Wyborcza reports that GUS announced that industrial output recently decreased by 1.3 percent year on year. That is only half of what was previously predicted. Chief economist from Citi Handlowy, Piotr Kalisz said, “If not in November, then in December we will have solid year on year growth in industrial output.” An economist with BRE Bank, Ernest Pytlarczyk, believes third quarter GDP growth could be over 1.4 percent, and close to three percent in the fourth quarter.

Elsewhere, the Dow Jones reported that, according to Marian Noga, a member of the National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council, unemployment should not go over 12.5 percent this year, and should begin a gradual decline in 2010.