The Wall Street Journal reported that Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner, a member of the National Bank of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council, told Dziennik Gazeta Prawna that Poland will probably not adopt the euro before 2014 or 2015.
The criteria for joining the eurozone, as outlined in the Maastricht Treaty, involve interest rates, the budget deficit, currency stability, inflation, and political consensus. Right now, Poland only meets the criteria for interest rates. The budget deficit compared to GDP is expected to double over the next year, the złoty has been unstable against the euro, and there is clearly no agreement on euro adoption, with the PiS (Law and Justice) party opposed to it.
PO (Citizens Platform) previously set 2012 as the goal for joining the eurozone, but the financial crisis and its consequences, including the instability of the złoty, made the goal unrealistic.
Adoption of the euro is expected to substantially raise the gross domestic product, but also to initially cause a rise in inflation and an economic slowdown.